First, before even starting, let me say that this article is not about politics. It is not about which politician is helping the economy or hurting the economy. Please, no political arguments on this site. There are other places on the Internet for that.
The world’s economy has been in the pits for a number of years now. Maybe it’s not as bad now as it was a few years ago, but in recent months it has certainly not been hot. But, even though the world’s economy has still been on the downside, perhaps we are starting to see improvements? The question is, though…. how will we know when things are back on track?
Really, the only way to know for sure that the economy is back is to wait and watch. Truth is, under normal circumstances, it will be 4 to 6 months after the economy has truly recovered before we will know that things are on the upswing again. Anybody who says that the economy is back (or not) is only speculating because we can’t know until we see the trend for an extended period of time.
In the USA, the employment rate has improved over the previous months. More people are working. Hopefully, more people will be feeling more confident, which will help the economy become even stronger over time. Confidence is a key indicator of where the economy will be headed in the short term.
I have a personal observation in this area, though, which has made me believe that things are moving in the right direction. I have an e-commerce site that sells gift products, and we deliver them all around the Philippines. You could really say that everything we sell is a luxury item because you can get by without sending gifts in hard times. So, when the world economy crashed in 2008, our sales fell quickly. In fact, we lost about 90% of our normal business at the time. It was quite devastating. Things have picked up over the years, but still nowhere near pre-recession days. However, this year for Valentine’s Day, our sales took a sharp climb! We were, in fact, back to more normal levels of business!
I don’t expect that everything will be back to normal now. That’s not going to happen overnight. It will take time to grow our way back to where things were pre-recession. However, I do hope that things will be showing movement in the right direction. And, I think things will move in that direction.
What do you think? Have we seen the worst yet when it comes to economic times? I now think that we have. I hope I’m right.